San José 1–3 Independiente Petrolero

San José

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente Petrolero

7/22/2021

Primera División · Round 10Estadio Jesús Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

San José47%

×Draw22%

Independiente Petrolero31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San JoséExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Petrolero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.48

San José

1.87

Independiente Petrolero

1.48

San José creates 26% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 91 away

1.81

creates per match

1.26

1.70

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

San José

1.81

Independiente Petrolero

1.26

allows per match

San José

1.70

Independiente Petrolero

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San José+0.00on par

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San José ↓

Independiente Petrolero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

San José or draw

69%

San José or Independiente Petrolero

78%

Draw or Independiente Petrolero

53%

Winning margin

San José wins by 2+

26%

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

San José 1+ goals

85%

San José 2+ goals

56%

San José 3+ goals

29%

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals

77%

Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals

43%

Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

San José (draw refunded)

60%

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San José at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.70 · 53 matches

Independiente Petrolero away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.93 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San José attack 1.81 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.87

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.26 + San José defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

San José scores more

47%

level

22%

Independiente Petrolero scores more

31%

San José at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "San José will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff