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Independiente Petrolero vs San José — Primera División 2019

Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
San José
San José
11/2/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 25Estadio Olímpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Independiente Petrolero59%
×Draw21%
San José20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Petrolero
2.07
San José
1.14

Independiente Petrolero creates 82% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 54 away

creates per match

Independiente Petrolero
1.75
San José
1.06

allows per match

Independiente Petrolero
1.21
San José
2.39

finishing

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par
San José+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Petrolero ↓

San José →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Independiente Petrolero or draw
80%
Independiente Petrolero or San José
79%
Draw or San José
41%

Winning margin

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+
35%
San José wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals
87%
Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals
61%
Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals
34%
San José 1+ goals
68%
San José 2+ goals
32%
San José 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)
74%
San José (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Petrolero at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

San José away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.39 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.75 + San José defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.07

San José attack 1.06 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Independiente Petrolero scores more
59%
level
21%
San José scores more
20%

Independiente Petrolero at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Independiente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente Petrolero vs San José

Independiente Petrolero beat San José 4-0 in Primera División on November 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Patria in Sucre.