San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Cincinnati — Major League Soccer 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 19+ matches
San Jose Earthquakes47%
FC Cincinnati31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
San Jose Earthquakes creates 27% more chances
Season form · 24 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes65
- No35
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
San Jose Earthquakes ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
San Jose Earthquakes at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.61 · 24 matches
FC Cincinnati away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.65 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
San Jose Earthquakes attack 2.07 + FC Cincinnati defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.86
FC Cincinnati attack 1.33 + San Jose Earthquakes defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.47
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
San Jose Earthquakes at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "San Jose Earthquakes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
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Orlando City SCSan Jose EarthquakesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
San Jose Earthquakes host FC Cincinnati on Sunday, 16 June 2024 at 02:30. The match is part of the Major League Soccer 2018/2019 season.
Major League Soccer: San Jose Earthquakes 2–4 FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati beat San Jose Earthquakes 4-2 in Major League Soccer on June 16, 2024.
Goals: P. Bucha (53'), H. López (57'), C. Espinoza (72'), Y. Kubo (78', 80', 87').
FC Cincinnati controlled possession (57%) and registered 19 shots to 20.
The match was played at PayPal Park in San Jose, California.