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FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes — Major League Soccer 2018

FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati
FT
6 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes
9/10/2022Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 42TQL Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

FC Cincinnati42%
×Draw23%
San Jose Earthquakes34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cincinnati
1.68
San Jose Earthquakes
1.50

FC Cincinnati creates 12% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

creates per match

FC Cincinnati
1.71
San Jose Earthquakes
1.42

allows per match

FC Cincinnati
1.58
San Jose Earthquakes
1.65

finishing

FC Cincinnati+0.18scores more
San Jose Earthquakes+0.53scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cincinnati ↓

San Jose Earthquakes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FC Cincinnati or draw
66%
FC Cincinnati or San Jose Earthquakes
77%
Draw or San Jose Earthquakes
58%

Winning margin

FC Cincinnati wins by 2+
22%
San Jose Earthquakes wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Cincinnati 1+ goals
81%
FC Cincinnati 2+ goals
50%
FC Cincinnati 3+ goals
24%
San Jose Earthquakes 1+ goals
78%
San Jose Earthquakes 2+ goals
44%
San Jose Earthquakes 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FC Cincinnati (draw refunded)
55%
San Jose Earthquakes (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cincinnati at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.58 · 18 matches

San Jose Earthquakes away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.65 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cincinnati attack 1.71 + San Jose Earthquakes defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.68

San Jose Earthquakes attack 1.42 + FC Cincinnati defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Cincinnati scores more
42%
level
23%
San Jose Earthquakes scores more
34%

FC Cincinnati at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Cincinnati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes

FC Cincinnati beat San Jose Earthquakes 6-0 in Major League Soccer on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at TQL Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio.