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San Jorge Tucumán vs Juventud Antoniana — Torneo Federal A 2018

San Jorge Tucumán
San Jorge Tucumán
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Juventud Antoniana
Juventud Antoniana
11/27/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 4 - 16Estadio Ángel Pascual Sáez (San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Jorge Tucumán57%
×Draw26%
Juventud Antoniana17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Jorge Tucumán
1.54
Juventud Antoniana
0.70

San Jorge Tucumán creates 120% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 78 away

creates per match

San Jorge Tucumán
1.71
Juventud Antoniana
0.58

allows per match

San Jorge Tucumán
0.82
Juventud Antoniana
1.38

finishing

San Jorge Tucumán+0.00on par
Juventud Antoniana+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Jorge Tucumán ↓

Juventud Antoniana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

San Jorge Tucumán or draw
83%
San Jorge Tucumán or Juventud Antoniana
74%
Draw or Juventud Antoniana
43%

Winning margin

San Jorge Tucumán wins by 2+
30%
Juventud Antoniana wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

San Jorge Tucumán 1+ goals
79%
San Jorge Tucumán 2+ goals
45%
San Jorge Tucumán 3+ goals
20%
Juventud Antoniana 1+ goals
50%
Juventud Antoniana 2+ goals
16%
Juventud Antoniana 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

San Jorge Tucumán (draw refunded)
77%
Juventud Antoniana (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Jorge Tucumán at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Juventud Antoniana away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.38 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Jorge Tucumán attack 1.71 + Juventud Antoniana defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.54

Juventud Antoniana attack 0.58 + San Jorge Tucumán defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

San Jorge Tucumán scores more
57%
level
26%
Juventud Antoniana scores more
17%

San Jorge Tucumán at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "San Jorge Tucumán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Jorge Tucumán vs Juventud Antoniana

San Jorge Tucumán and Juventud Antoniana drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on November 27, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Ángel Pascual Sáez (San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán).