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Juventud Antoniana vs San Jorge Tucumán — Copa Argentina 2018

Juventud Antoniana
Juventud Antoniana
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
San Jorge Tucumán
San Jorge Tucumán
2/22/2018Copa ArgentinaCopa Argentina · Group A - 2nd Round QualifyingEstadio Padre Ernesto Martearena (Ciudad de Salta, Provincia de Salta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Juventud Antoniana36%
×Draw28%
San Jorge Tucumán36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Antoniana
1.17
San Jorge Tucumán
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Juventud Antoniana
1.00
San Jorge Tucumán
1.67

allows per match

Juventud Antoniana
0.67
San Jorge Tucumán
1.33

finishing

Juventud Antoniana+0.00on par
San Jorge Tucumán+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Antoniana ↓

San Jorge Tucumán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Juventud Antoniana or draw
64%
Juventud Antoniana or San Jorge Tucumán
72%
Draw or San Jorge Tucumán
64%

Winning margin

Juventud Antoniana wins by 2+
15%
San Jorge Tucumán wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Juventud Antoniana 1+ goals
69%
Juventud Antoniana 2+ goals
33%
Juventud Antoniana 3+ goals
11%
San Jorge Tucumán 1+ goals
69%
San Jorge Tucumán 2+ goals
33%
San Jorge Tucumán 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Juventud Antoniana (draw refunded)
50%
San Jorge Tucumán (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Antoniana at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

San Jorge Tucumán away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Antoniana attack 1.00 + San Jorge Tucumán defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

San Jorge Tucumán attack 1.67 + Juventud Antoniana defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Juventud Antoniana scores more
36%
level
28%
San Jorge Tucumán scores more
36%

Juventud Antoniana at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Juventud Antoniana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Argentina: Juventud Antoniana 2–1 San Jorge Tucumán

Juventud Antoniana beat San Jorge Tucumán 2-1 in Copa Argentina on February 22, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Padre Ernesto Martearena (Ciudad de Salta, Provincia de Salta).