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San Jorge Tucumán vs Defensores de Belgrano VR — Torneo Federal A 2018

San Jorge Tucumán
San Jorge Tucumán
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Defensores de Belgrano VR
Defensores de Belgrano VRadvanced
6/2/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsEstadio Segundo Saitilla Reynoso (Ingenio Lastenia, Provincia de Tucumán)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Jorge Tucumán53%
×Draw26%
Defensores de Belgrano VR21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Jorge Tucumán
1.53
Defensores de Belgrano VR
0.86

San Jorge Tucumán creates 78% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 113 away

creates per match

San Jorge Tucumán
1.71
Defensores de Belgrano VR
0.90

allows per match

San Jorge Tucumán
0.82
Defensores de Belgrano VR
1.35

finishing

San Jorge Tucumán+0.00on par
Defensores de Belgrano VR+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Jorge Tucumán ↓

Defensores de Belgrano VR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

San Jorge Tucumán or draw
79%
San Jorge Tucumán or Defensores de Belgrano VR
74%
Draw or Defensores de Belgrano VR
47%

Winning margin

San Jorge Tucumán wins by 2+
27%
Defensores de Belgrano VR wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

San Jorge Tucumán 1+ goals
78%
San Jorge Tucumán 2+ goals
45%
San Jorge Tucumán 3+ goals
20%
Defensores de Belgrano VR 1+ goals
58%
Defensores de Belgrano VR 2+ goals
21%
Defensores de Belgrano VR 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

San Jorge Tucumán (draw refunded)
71%
Defensores de Belgrano VR (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Jorge Tucumán at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Defensores de Belgrano VR away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.35 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Jorge Tucumán attack 1.71 + Defensores de Belgrano VR defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.53

Defensores de Belgrano VR attack 0.90 + San Jorge Tucumán defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

San Jorge Tucumán scores more
53%
level
26%
Defensores de Belgrano VR scores more
21%

San Jorge Tucumán at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "San Jorge Tucumán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Jorge Tucumán vs Defensores de Belgrano VR

Defensores de Belgrano VR beat San Jorge Tucumán 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on June 2, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Segundo Saitilla Reynoso (Ingenio Lastenia, Provincia de Tucumán).