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Defensores de Belgrano VR vs San Jorge Tucumán — Torneo Federal A 2018

Defensores de Belgrano VR
Defensores de Belgrano VR
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
San Jorge Tucumán
San Jorge Tucumánadvanced
5/26/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsEstadio Salomón Boeseldín (Villa Ramallo, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Defensores de Belgrano VR39%
×Draw27%
San Jorge Tucumán35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Defensores de Belgrano VR
1.32
San Jorge Tucumán
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 17 away

creates per match

Defensores de Belgrano VR
1.11
San Jorge Tucumán
1.59

allows per match

Defensores de Belgrano VR
0.89
San Jorge Tucumán
1.53

finishing

Defensores de Belgrano VR+0.00on par
San Jorge Tucumán+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores de Belgrano VR ↓

San Jorge Tucumán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Defensores de Belgrano VR or draw
65%
Defensores de Belgrano VR or San Jorge Tucumán
73%
Draw or San Jorge Tucumán
61%

Winning margin

Defensores de Belgrano VR wins by 2+
17%
San Jorge Tucumán wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Defensores de Belgrano VR 1+ goals
73%
Defensores de Belgrano VR 2+ goals
38%
Defensores de Belgrano VR 3+ goals
15%
San Jorge Tucumán 1+ goals
71%
San Jorge Tucumán 2+ goals
35%
San Jorge Tucumán 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Defensores de Belgrano VR (draw refunded)
53%
San Jorge Tucumán (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores de Belgrano VR at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.89 · 110 matches

San Jorge Tucumán away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores de Belgrano VR attack 1.11 + San Jorge Tucumán defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.32

San Jorge Tucumán attack 1.59 + Defensores de Belgrano VR defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Defensores de Belgrano VR scores more
39%
level
27%
San Jorge Tucumán scores more
35%

Defensores de Belgrano VR at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Defensores de Belgrano VR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Defensores de Belgrano VR 0 – 3 San Jorge Tucumán

San Jorge Tucumán beat Defensores de Belgrano VR 3-0 in Torneo Federal A on May 26, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Salomón Boeseldín (Villa Ramallo, Provincia de Buenos Aires).