San Jorge Tucumán vs Boca Unidos — Torneo Federal A 2018
Torneo Federal A · Zone 4 - 3Estadio Luis Hayward (San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán)Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
San Jorge Tucumán56%
Boca Unidos20%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
San Jorge Tucumán creates 92% more chances
Season form · 17 home / 105 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
San Jorge Tucumán ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
San Jorge Tucumán at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches
Boca Unidos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.54 · 105 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
San Jorge Tucumán attack 1.71 + Boca Unidos defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.63
Boca Unidos attack 0.89 + San Jorge Tucumán defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.85
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
San Jorge Tucumán at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "San Jorge Tucumán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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Sol de MayoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
San Jorge Tucumán host Boca Unidos on Wednesday, 19 September 2018 at 19:00. The match is part of the Torneo Federal A 2018/2019 season.
San Jorge Tucumán 0 – 1 Boca Unidos
Boca Unidos beat San Jorge Tucumán 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on September 19, 2018.
Goals: M. Fabro (90+3').
The match was played at Estadio Luis Hayward (San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán).