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Boca Unidos vs San Jorge Tucumán — Torneo Federal A 2018

Boca Unidos
Boca Unidos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
San Jorge Tucumán
San Jorge Tucumán
2/3/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Leoncio Benítez (Corrientes, Provincia de Corrientes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Boca Unidos42%
×Draw25%
San Jorge Tucumán32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boca Unidos
1.48
San Jorge Tucumán
1.25

Boca Unidos creates 18% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 17 away

creates per match

Boca Unidos
1.43
San Jorge Tucumán
1.59

allows per match

Boca Unidos
0.91
San Jorge Tucumán
1.53

finishing

Boca Unidos+0.00on par
San Jorge Tucumán+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Unidos ↓

San Jorge Tucumán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Boca Unidos or draw
68%
Boca Unidos or San Jorge Tucumán
75%
Draw or San Jorge Tucumán
58%

Winning margin

Boca Unidos wins by 2+
21%
San Jorge Tucumán wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Boca Unidos 1+ goals
77%
Boca Unidos 2+ goals
43%
Boca Unidos 3+ goals
19%
San Jorge Tucumán 1+ goals
71%
San Jorge Tucumán 2+ goals
36%
San Jorge Tucumán 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Boca Unidos (draw refunded)
57%
San Jorge Tucumán (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Unidos at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.91 · 106 matches

San Jorge Tucumán away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Unidos attack 1.43 + San Jorge Tucumán defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48

San Jorge Tucumán attack 1.59 + Boca Unidos defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Boca Unidos scores more
42%
level
25%
San Jorge Tucumán scores more
32%

Boca Unidos at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Boca Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Boca Unidos 1–1 San Jorge Tucumán

Boca Unidos and San Jorge Tucumán drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on February 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Leoncio Benítez (Corrientes, Provincia de Corrientes).