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San Jorge Tucumán vs AH Zapla — Torneo Federal A 2018

San Jorge Tucumán
San Jorge Tucumán
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AH Zapla
AH Zapla
12/9/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 4 - 18Estadio Ángel Pascual Sáez (San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

San Jorge Tucumán66%
×Draw22%
AH Zapla11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Jorge Tucumán
1.77
AH Zapla
0.57

San Jorge Tucumán creates 211% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 12 away

creates per match

San Jorge Tucumán
1.71
AH Zapla
0.33

allows per match

San Jorge Tucumán
0.82
AH Zapla
1.83

finishing

San Jorge Tucumán+0.00on par
AH Zapla+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Jorge Tucumán ↓

AH Zapla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

San Jorge Tucumán or draw
89%
San Jorge Tucumán or AH Zapla
78%
Draw or AH Zapla
34%

Winning margin

San Jorge Tucumán wins by 2+
39%
AH Zapla wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

San Jorge Tucumán 1+ goals
83%
San Jorge Tucumán 2+ goals
53%
San Jorge Tucumán 3+ goals
26%
AH Zapla 1+ goals
43%
AH Zapla 2+ goals
11%
AH Zapla 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

San Jorge Tucumán (draw refunded)
85%
AH Zapla (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Jorge Tucumán at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

AH Zapla away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Jorge Tucumán attack 1.71 + AH Zapla defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.77

AH Zapla attack 0.33 + San Jorge Tucumán defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

San Jorge Tucumán scores more
66%
level
22%
AH Zapla scores more
11%

San Jorge Tucumán at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "San Jorge Tucumán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

San Jorge Tucumán 4 – 0 AH Zapla

San Jorge Tucumán beat AH Zapla 4-0 in Torneo Federal A on December 9, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Ángel Pascual Sáez (San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán).