AH Zapla 0–2 San Jorge Tucumán: Result & Stats

AH Zapla

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

San Jorge Tucumán

1/24/2018

Copa Argentina · Group A - 1st Round QualifyingEstadio Coronel Emilio Fabrizzi (Palpalá, Provincia de Jujuy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

AH Zapla25%

×Draw26%

San Jorge Tucumán49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AH ZaplaExpected goals in this matchSan Jorge Tucumán

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.50

AH Zapla

1.00

San Jorge Tucumán

1.50

San Jorge Tucumán creates 50% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.67

creates per match

1.67

1.33

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

AH Zapla

0.67

San Jorge Tucumán

1.67

allows per match

AH Zapla

1.33

San Jorge Tucumán

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AH Zapla+0.00on par

San Jorge Tucumán+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AH Zapla ↓

San Jorge Tucumán →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

AH Zapla or draw

51%

AH Zapla or San Jorge Tucumán

74%

Draw or San Jorge Tucumán

75%

Winning margin

AH Zapla wins by 2+

9%

San Jorge Tucumán wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

AH Zapla 1+ goals

63%

AH Zapla 2+ goals

26%

AH Zapla 3+ goals

8%

San Jorge Tucumán 1+ goals

78%

San Jorge Tucumán 2+ goals

44%

San Jorge Tucumán 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

AH Zapla (draw refunded)

34%

San Jorge Tucumán (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AH Zapla at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

San Jorge Tucumán away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AH Zapla attack 0.67 + San Jorge Tucumán defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

San Jorge Tucumán attack 1.67 + AH Zapla defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

AH Zapla scores more

25%

level

26%

San Jorge Tucumán scores more

49%

San Jorge Tucumán at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "San Jorge Tucumán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff