San Ignacio 3–3 Real Sociedad III: Result & Stats

San Ignacio

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Real Sociedad III

11/23/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Campo de Fútbol de Adurtzabal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

San Ignacio38%

×Draw25%

Real Sociedad III37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San IgnacioExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.44

San Ignacio

1.45

Real Sociedad III

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 44 away

1.38

creates per match

1.66

1.21

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

San Ignacio

1.38

Real Sociedad III

1.66

allows per match

San Ignacio

1.21

Real Sociedad III

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Ignacio+0.00on par

Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Ignacio ↓

Real Sociedad III →

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

San Ignacio or draw

63%

San Ignacio or Real Sociedad III

75%

Draw or Real Sociedad III

62%

Winning margin

San Ignacio wins by 2+

18%

Real Sociedad III wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

San Ignacio 1+ goals

77%

San Ignacio 2+ goals

42%

San Ignacio 3+ goals

18%

Real Sociedad III 1+ goals

76%

Real Sociedad III 2+ goals

42%

Real Sociedad III 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

San Ignacio (draw refunded)

50%

Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Ignacio at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Real Sociedad III away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Ignacio attack 1.38 + Real Sociedad III defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.45

Real Sociedad III attack 1.66 + San Ignacio defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

San Ignacio scores more

38%

level

25%

Real Sociedad III scores more

37%

San Ignacio at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "San Ignacio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Ignacio vs Real Sociedad III

San Ignacio and Real Sociedad III drew 3-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol de Adurtzabal in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

San Ignacio vs Real Sociedad III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: San Ignacio vs Real Sociedad III