Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

San Ignacio vs Deportivo Alavés III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

San Ignacio
San Ignacio
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Alavés III
Deportivo Alavés III
5/3/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 33Campo de fútbol Los Astrónomos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

San Ignacio44%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Alavés III29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Ignacio
1.40
Deportivo Alavés III
1.07

San Ignacio creates 31% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 51 away

creates per match

San Ignacio
1.38
Deportivo Alavés III
0.94

allows per match

San Ignacio
1.21
Deportivo Alavés III
1.41

finishing

San Ignacio+0.00on par
Deportivo Alavés III+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Ignacio ↓

Deportivo Alavés III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

San Ignacio or draw
71%
San Ignacio or Deportivo Alavés III
73%
Draw or Deportivo Alavés III
56%

Winning margin

San Ignacio wins by 2+
21%
Deportivo Alavés III wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

San Ignacio 1+ goals
75%
San Ignacio 2+ goals
41%
San Ignacio 3+ goals
17%
Deportivo Alavés III 1+ goals
66%
Deportivo Alavés III 2+ goals
29%
Deportivo Alavés III 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

San Ignacio (draw refunded)
61%
Deportivo Alavés III (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Ignacio at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Deportivo Alavés III away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Ignacio attack 1.38 + Deportivo Alavés III defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Deportivo Alavés III attack 0.94 + San Ignacio defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

San Ignacio scores more
44%
level
27%
Deportivo Alavés III scores more
29%

San Ignacio at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "San Ignacio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

San Ignacio 0 – 1 Deportivo Alavés III

Deportivo Alavés III beat San Ignacio 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on May 3, 2026.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol Los Astrónomos in Gasteiz.