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Deportivo Alavés III vs San Ignacio — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Deportivo Alavés III
Deportivo Alavés III
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
San Ignacio
San Ignacio
2/4/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 19Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Deportivo Alavés III47%
×Draw27%
San Ignacio26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Alavés III
1.41
San Ignacio
0.99

Deportivo Alavés III creates 42% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 112 away

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés III
1.65
San Ignacio
0.99

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés III
1.00
San Ignacio
1.17

finishing

Deportivo Alavés III+0.00on par
San Ignacio+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés III ↓

San Ignacio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés III or draw
74%
Deportivo Alavés III or San Ignacio
73%
Draw or San Ignacio
53%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés III wins by 2+
23%
San Ignacio wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés III 1+ goals
76%
Deportivo Alavés III 2+ goals
41%
Deportivo Alavés III 3+ goals
17%
San Ignacio 1+ goals
63%
San Ignacio 2+ goals
26%
San Ignacio 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés III (draw refunded)
64%
San Ignacio (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés III at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.00 · 51 matches

San Ignacio away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés III attack 1.65 + San Ignacio defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.41

San Ignacio attack 0.99 + Deportivo Alavés III defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo Alavés III scores more
47%
level
27%
San Ignacio scores more
26%

Deportivo Alavés III at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Alavés III vs San Ignacio

San Ignacio beat Deportivo Alavés III 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón in Vitoria-Gasteiz.