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San Ignacio vs Balmaseda — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

San Ignacio
San Ignacio
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Balmaseda
Balmaseda
1/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 19Campo de Fútbol de Adurtzabal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

San Ignacio41%
×Draw28%
Balmaseda31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Ignacio
1.25
Balmaseda
1.04

San Ignacio creates 20% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 30 away

creates per match

San Ignacio
1.38
Balmaseda
0.87

allows per match

San Ignacio
1.21
Balmaseda
1.13

finishing

San Ignacio+0.00on par
Balmaseda+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Ignacio ↓

Balmaseda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

San Ignacio or draw
69%
San Ignacio or Balmaseda
72%
Draw or Balmaseda
59%

Winning margin

San Ignacio wins by 2+
18%
Balmaseda wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

San Ignacio 1+ goals
71%
San Ignacio 2+ goals
36%
San Ignacio 3+ goals
13%
Balmaseda 1+ goals
65%
Balmaseda 2+ goals
28%
Balmaseda 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

San Ignacio (draw refunded)
57%
Balmaseda (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Ignacio at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Balmaseda away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Ignacio attack 1.38 + Balmaseda defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Balmaseda attack 0.87 + San Ignacio defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

San Ignacio scores more
41%
level
28%
Balmaseda scores more
31%

San Ignacio at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "San Ignacio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Ignacio vs Balmaseda

San Ignacio and Balmaseda drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 5, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol de Adurtzabal in Vitoria-Gasteiz.