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Balmaseda vs San Ignacio — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Balmaseda
Balmaseda
CANC
22:00
San Ignacio
San Ignacio
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 38Campo de Fútbol La Baluga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Balmaseda41%
×Draw28%
San Ignacio31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balmaseda
1.28
San Ignacio
1.06

Balmaseda creates 21% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 112 away

creates per match

Balmaseda
1.39
San Ignacio
0.99

allows per match

Balmaseda
1.14
San Ignacio
1.17

finishing

Balmaseda+0.00on par
San Ignacio+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balmaseda ↓

San Ignacio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Balmaseda or draw
69%
Balmaseda or San Ignacio
72%
Draw or San Ignacio
59%

Winning margin

Balmaseda wins by 2+
19%
San Ignacio wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Balmaseda 1+ goals
72%
Balmaseda 2+ goals
37%
Balmaseda 3+ goals
14%
San Ignacio 1+ goals
65%
San Ignacio 2+ goals
29%
San Ignacio 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Balmaseda (draw refunded)
57%
San Ignacio (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balmaseda at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

San Ignacio away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balmaseda attack 1.39 + San Ignacio defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

San Ignacio attack 0.99 + Balmaseda defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Balmaseda scores more
41%
level
28%
San Ignacio scores more
31%

Balmaseda at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Balmaseda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Balmaseda vs San Ignacio — Match Preview

Balmaseda face San Ignacio on May 16, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Balmaseda host San Ignacio at Campo de Fútbol La Baluga.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.