San Ignacio 0–1 Aurrerá Vitoria: Result & Stats

San Ignacio

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Aurrerá Vitoria

9/24/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 3Campo de Fútbol de Adurtzabal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

San Ignacio51%

×Draw25%

Aurrerá Vitoria24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San IgnacioExpected goals in this matchAurrerá Vitoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.01

San Ignacio

1.58

Aurrerá Vitoria

1.01

San Ignacio creates 56% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 32 away

1.38

creates per match

0.81

1.21

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

San Ignacio

1.38

Aurrerá Vitoria

0.81

allows per match

San Ignacio

1.21

Aurrerá Vitoria

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Ignacio+0.00on par

Aurrerá Vitoria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Ignacio ↓

Aurrerá Vitoria →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

San Ignacio or draw

76%

San Ignacio or Aurrerá Vitoria

75%

Draw or Aurrerá Vitoria

49%

Winning margin

San Ignacio wins by 2+

26%

Aurrerá Vitoria wins by 2+

Team goals

San Ignacio 1+ goals

79%

San Ignacio 2+ goals

47%

San Ignacio 3+ goals

21%

Aurrerá Vitoria 1+ goals

64%

Aurrerá Vitoria 2+ goals

27%

Aurrerá Vitoria 3+ goals

Draw no bet

San Ignacio (draw refunded)

68%

Aurrerá Vitoria (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Ignacio at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Aurrerá Vitoria away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Ignacio attack 1.38 + Aurrerá Vitoria defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.58

Aurrerá Vitoria attack 0.81 + San Ignacio defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

San Ignacio scores more

51%

level

25%

Aurrerá Vitoria scores more

24%

San Ignacio at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "San Ignacio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Ignacio vs Aurrerá Vitoria

Aurrerá Vitoria beat San Ignacio 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol de Adurtzabal in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

San Ignacio vs Aurrerá Vitoria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: San Ignacio vs Aurrerá Vitoria