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Aurrerá Vitoria vs San Ignacio — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Aurrerá Vitoria
Aurrerá Vitoria
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
San Ignacio
San Ignacio
1/28/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 18Estadio Olaranbe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Aurrerá Vitoria33%
×Draw28%
San Ignacio39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aurrerá Vitoria
1.10
San Ignacio
1.21

San Ignacio creates 10% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 112 away

creates per match

Aurrerá Vitoria
1.03
San Ignacio
0.99

allows per match

Aurrerá Vitoria
1.44
San Ignacio
1.17

finishing

Aurrerá Vitoria+0.00on par
San Ignacio+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aurrerá Vitoria ↓

San Ignacio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Aurrerá Vitoria or draw
61%
Aurrerá Vitoria or San Ignacio
72%
Draw or San Ignacio
67%

Winning margin

Aurrerá Vitoria wins by 2+
13%
San Ignacio wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Aurrerá Vitoria 1+ goals
67%
Aurrerá Vitoria 2+ goals
30%
Aurrerá Vitoria 3+ goals
10%
San Ignacio 1+ goals
70%
San Ignacio 2+ goals
34%
San Ignacio 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Aurrerá Vitoria (draw refunded)
46%
San Ignacio (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aurrerá Vitoria at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

San Ignacio away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aurrerá Vitoria attack 1.03 + San Ignacio defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

San Ignacio attack 0.99 + Aurrerá Vitoria defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aurrerá Vitoria scores more
33%
level
28%
San Ignacio scores more
39%

San Ignacio at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "San Ignacio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aurrerá Vitoria vs San Ignacio

San Ignacio beat Aurrerá Vitoria 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 28, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olaranbe in Vitoria-Gasteiz.