Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

San Ignacio vs Ariznabarra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

San Ignacio
San Ignacio
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ariznabarra
Ariznabarra
10/17/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 1Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

San Ignacio60%
×Draw23%
Ariznabarra18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Ignacio
1.81
Ariznabarra
0.86

San Ignacio creates 110% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 29 away

creates per match

San Ignacio
1.38
Ariznabarra
0.52

allows per match

San Ignacio
1.21
Ariznabarra
2.24

finishing

San Ignacio+0.00on par
Ariznabarra+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Ignacio ↓

Ariznabarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

San Ignacio or draw
82%
San Ignacio or Ariznabarra
77%
Draw or Ariznabarra
40%

Winning margin

San Ignacio wins by 2+
34%
Ariznabarra wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

San Ignacio 1+ goals
84%
San Ignacio 2+ goals
54%
San Ignacio 3+ goals
27%
Ariznabarra 1+ goals
58%
Ariznabarra 2+ goals
21%
Ariznabarra 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

San Ignacio (draw refunded)
77%
Ariznabarra (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Ignacio at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Ariznabarra away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Ignacio attack 1.38 + Ariznabarra defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.81

Ariznabarra attack 0.52 + San Ignacio defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

San Ignacio scores more
60%
level
23%
Ariznabarra scores more
18%

San Ignacio at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "San Ignacio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

San Ignacio 1 – 1 Ariznabarra

San Ignacio and Ariznabarra drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón in Vitoria-Gasteiz.