Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ariznabarra vs San Ignacio — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Ariznabarra
Ariznabarra
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
San Ignacio
San Ignacio
2/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 12Estadio Ariznabarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Ariznabarra32%
×Draw28%
San Ignacio40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ariznabarra
1.08
San Ignacio
1.23

San Ignacio creates 14% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 112 away

creates per match

Ariznabarra
1.00
San Ignacio
0.99

allows per match

Ariznabarra
1.48
San Ignacio
1.17

finishing

Ariznabarra+0.00on par
San Ignacio+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ariznabarra ↓

San Ignacio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ariznabarra or draw
60%
Ariznabarra or San Ignacio
72%
Draw or San Ignacio
68%

Winning margin

Ariznabarra wins by 2+
13%
San Ignacio wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ariznabarra 1+ goals
66%
Ariznabarra 2+ goals
29%
Ariznabarra 3+ goals
10%
San Ignacio 1+ goals
71%
San Ignacio 2+ goals
35%
San Ignacio 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ariznabarra (draw refunded)
45%
San Ignacio (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ariznabarra at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

San Ignacio away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ariznabarra attack 1.00 + San Ignacio defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

San Ignacio attack 0.99 + Ariznabarra defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ariznabarra scores more
32%
level
28%
San Ignacio scores more
40%

San Ignacio at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "San Ignacio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Ariznabarra 2–0 San Ignacio

Ariznabarra beat San Ignacio 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Ariznabarra in Vitoria-Gasteiz.