San Ignacio 3–0 Añorga: Result & Stats

San Ignacio

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Añorga

2/10/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 20Campo de fútbol Los Astrónomos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

San Ignacio60%

×Draw23%

Añorga17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San IgnacioExpected goals in this matchAñorga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.84

San Ignacio

1.78

Añorga

0.84

San Ignacio creates 112% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 33 away

1.38

creates per match

0.48

1.21

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

San Ignacio

1.38

Añorga

0.48

allows per match

San Ignacio

1.21

Añorga

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Ignacio+0.00on par

Añorga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Ignacio ↓

Añorga →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

San Ignacio or draw

83%

San Ignacio or Añorga

77%

Draw or Añorga

40%

Winning margin

San Ignacio wins by 2+

34%

Añorga wins by 2+

Team goals

San Ignacio 1+ goals

83%

San Ignacio 2+ goals

53%

San Ignacio 3+ goals

26%

Añorga 1+ goals

57%

Añorga 2+ goals

21%

Añorga 3+ goals

Draw no bet

San Ignacio (draw refunded)

77%

Añorga (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Ignacio at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Añorga away — creates 0.48, concedes 2.18 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Ignacio attack 1.38 + Añorga defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.78

Añorga attack 0.48 + San Ignacio defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

San Ignacio scores more

60%

level

23%

Añorga scores more

17%

San Ignacio at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "San Ignacio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff