Añorga 2–3 San Ignacio: Result & Stats

Añorga

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

San Ignacio

9/23/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 3Instalaciones de Zubieta Campo Z-4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Añorga40%

×Draw27%

San Ignacio33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AñorgaExpected goals in this matchSan Ignacio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.20

Añorga

1.35

San Ignacio

1.20

Añorga creates 13% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 112 away

1.53

creates per match

0.99

1.41

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Añorga

1.53

San Ignacio

0.99

allows per match

Añorga

1.41

San Ignacio

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Añorga+0.00on par

San Ignacio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Añorga ↓

San Ignacio →

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Añorga or draw

67%

Añorga or San Ignacio

73%

Draw or San Ignacio

60%

Winning margin

Añorga wins by 2+

18%

San Ignacio wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Añorga 1+ goals

74%

Añorga 2+ goals

39%

Añorga 3+ goals

15%

San Ignacio 1+ goals

70%

San Ignacio 2+ goals

34%

San Ignacio 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Añorga (draw refunded)

55%

San Ignacio (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Añorga at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

San Ignacio away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Añorga attack 1.53 + San Ignacio defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.35

San Ignacio attack 0.99 + Añorga defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Añorga scores more

40%

level

27%

San Ignacio scores more

33%

Añorga at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Añorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff