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San Giovanni vs Domagnano — Coppa Titano 2020

San Giovanni
San Giovanni
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Domagnano
Domagnanoadvanced
10/26/2021Coppa TitanoCoppa Titano · Round of 16Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

San Giovanni39%
×Draw28%
Domagnano32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Giovanni
1.23
Domagnano
1.09

San Giovanni creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

San Giovanni
0.57
Domagnano
0.90

allows per match

San Giovanni
1.29
Domagnano
1.90

finishing

San Giovanni+0.00on par
Domagnano+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Giovanni ↓

Domagnano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

San Giovanni or draw
68%
San Giovanni or Domagnano
72%
Draw or Domagnano
61%

Winning margin

San Giovanni wins by 2+
17%
Domagnano wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

San Giovanni 1+ goals
71%
San Giovanni 2+ goals
35%
San Giovanni 3+ goals
13%
Domagnano 1+ goals
66%
Domagnano 2+ goals
30%
Domagnano 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

San Giovanni (draw refunded)
55%
Domagnano (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Giovanni at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Domagnano away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Giovanni attack 0.57 + Domagnano defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.23

Domagnano attack 0.90 + San Giovanni defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

San Giovanni scores more
39%
level
28%
Domagnano scores more
32%

San Giovanni at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "San Giovanni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Giovanni vs Domagnano

Domagnano beat San Giovanni 1-0 in Coppa Titano on October 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo in Città di San Marino.