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Domagnano vs San Giovanni — Coppa Titano 2020

Domagnano
Domagnano
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
San Giovanni
San Giovanniadvanced
9/24/2024Coppa TitanoCoppa Titano · Round of 16Campo Sportivo di Fiorentino Federico Crescentini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Domagnano51%
×Draw25%
San Giovanni24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Domagnano
1.60
San Giovanni
1.01

Domagnano creates 58% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Domagnano
1.00
San Giovanni
0.80

allows per match

Domagnano
1.22
San Giovanni
2.20

finishing

Domagnano+0.00on par
San Giovanni+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Domagnano ↓

San Giovanni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Domagnano or draw
76%
Domagnano or San Giovanni
75%
Draw or San Giovanni
49%

Winning margin

Domagnano wins by 2+
27%
San Giovanni wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Domagnano 1+ goals
80%
Domagnano 2+ goals
47%
Domagnano 3+ goals
22%
San Giovanni 1+ goals
64%
San Giovanni 2+ goals
27%
San Giovanni 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Domagnano (draw refunded)
68%
San Giovanni (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Domagnano at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

San Giovanni away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Domagnano attack 1.00 + San Giovanni defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

San Giovanni attack 0.80 + Domagnano defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Domagnano scores more
51%
level
25%
San Giovanni scores more
24%

Domagnano at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Domagnano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Domagnano vs San Giovanni

San Giovanni beat Domagnano 1-0 in Coppa Titano on September 24, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo di Fiorentino Federico Crescentini in Fiorentino.