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San Fernando Henares vs Pozuelo Alarcón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

San Fernando Henares
San Fernando Henares
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Pozuelo Alarcón
Pozuelo Alarcón
3/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 22Estadio Municipal Santiago del Pino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

San Fernando Henares40%
×Draw28%
Pozuelo Alarcón31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Fernando Henares
1.24
Pozuelo Alarcón
1.06

San Fernando Henares creates 17% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 97 away

creates per match

San Fernando Henares
1.19
Pozuelo Alarcón
0.96

allows per match

San Fernando Henares
1.16
Pozuelo Alarcón
1.29

finishing

San Fernando Henares+0.00on par
Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando Henares ↓

Pozuelo Alarcón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

San Fernando Henares or draw
69%
San Fernando Henares or Pozuelo Alarcón
72%
Draw or Pozuelo Alarcón
60%

Winning margin

San Fernando Henares wins by 2+
18%
Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

San Fernando Henares 1+ goals
71%
San Fernando Henares 2+ goals
35%
San Fernando Henares 3+ goals
13%
Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals
65%
Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals
29%
Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

San Fernando Henares (draw refunded)
56%
Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando Henares at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.16 · 31 matches

Pozuelo Alarcón away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando Henares attack 1.19 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.24

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 0.96 + San Fernando Henares defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

San Fernando Henares scores more
40%
level
28%
Pozuelo Alarcón scores more
31%

San Fernando Henares at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "San Fernando Henares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: San Fernando Henares 0–3 Pozuelo Alarcón

Pozuelo Alarcón beat San Fernando Henares 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Santiago del Pino in San Fernando de Henares.