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Pozuelo Alarcón vs San Fernando Henares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Pozuelo Alarcón
Pozuelo Alarcón
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
San Fernando Henares
San Fernando Henares
3/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 27Estadio Valle de las Cañas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Pozuelo Alarcón47%
×Draw25%
San Fernando Henares28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.58
San Fernando Henares
1.18

Pozuelo Alarcón creates 34% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 29 away

creates per match

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.32
San Fernando Henares
1.14

allows per match

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.22
San Fernando Henares
1.83

finishing

Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par
San Fernando Henares+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozuelo Alarcón ↓

San Fernando Henares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Pozuelo Alarcón or draw
72%
Pozuelo Alarcón or San Fernando Henares
75%
Draw or San Fernando Henares
53%

Winning margin

Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+
24%
San Fernando Henares wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals
79%
Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals
47%
Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals
21%
San Fernando Henares 1+ goals
69%
San Fernando Henares 2+ goals
33%
San Fernando Henares 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)
62%
San Fernando Henares (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pozuelo Alarcón at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 97 matches

San Fernando Henares away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 1.32 + San Fernando Henares defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

San Fernando Henares attack 1.14 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pozuelo Alarcón scores more
47%
level
25%
San Fernando Henares scores more
28%

Pozuelo Alarcón at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pozuelo Alarcón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pozuelo Alarcón vs San Fernando Henares

San Fernando Henares beat Pozuelo Alarcón 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Valle de las Cañas in Pozuelo de Alarcón.