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San Fernando Henares vs Flat Earth — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

San Fernando Henares
San Fernando Henares
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Flat Earth
Flat Earth
3/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 28Estadio Municipal Santiago del Pino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

San Fernando Henares41%
×Draw29%
Flat Earth30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Fernando Henares
1.20
Flat Earth
0.99

San Fernando Henares creates 21% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 28 away

creates per match

San Fernando Henares
1.19
Flat Earth
0.82

allows per match

San Fernando Henares
1.16
Flat Earth
1.21

finishing

San Fernando Henares+0.00on par
Flat Earth+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando Henares ↓

Flat Earth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

San Fernando Henares or draw
70%
San Fernando Henares or Flat Earth
71%
Draw or Flat Earth
59%

Winning margin

San Fernando Henares wins by 2+
18%
Flat Earth wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

San Fernando Henares 1+ goals
70%
San Fernando Henares 2+ goals
34%
San Fernando Henares 3+ goals
12%
Flat Earth 1+ goals
63%
Flat Earth 2+ goals
26%
Flat Earth 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

San Fernando Henares (draw refunded)
57%
Flat Earth (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando Henares at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.16 · 31 matches

Flat Earth away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando Henares attack 1.19 + Flat Earth defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.20

Flat Earth attack 0.82 + San Fernando Henares defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

San Fernando Henares scores more
41%
level
29%
Flat Earth scores more
30%

San Fernando Henares at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "San Fernando Henares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Fernando Henares vs Flat Earth

San Fernando Henares beat Flat Earth 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Santiago del Pino in San Fernando de Henares.