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Flat Earth vs San Fernando Henares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Flat Earth
Flat Earth
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
San Fernando Henares
San Fernando Henares
2/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 16Campo de Fútbol Castroserna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Flat Earth50%
×Draw26%
San Fernando Henares25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flat Earth
1.54
San Fernando Henares
1.01

Flat Earth creates 52% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 29 away

creates per match

Flat Earth
1.25
San Fernando Henares
1.14

allows per match

Flat Earth
0.89
San Fernando Henares
1.83

finishing

Flat Earth+0.00on par
San Fernando Henares+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flat Earth ↓

San Fernando Henares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Flat Earth or draw
75%
Flat Earth or San Fernando Henares
74%
Draw or San Fernando Henares
50%

Winning margin

Flat Earth wins by 2+
25%
San Fernando Henares wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Flat Earth 1+ goals
79%
Flat Earth 2+ goals
45%
Flat Earth 3+ goals
20%
San Fernando Henares 1+ goals
64%
San Fernando Henares 2+ goals
27%
San Fernando Henares 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Flat Earth (draw refunded)
67%
San Fernando Henares (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flat Earth at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

San Fernando Henares away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flat Earth attack 1.25 + San Fernando Henares defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

San Fernando Henares attack 1.14 + Flat Earth defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Flat Earth scores more
50%
level
26%
San Fernando Henares scores more
25%

Flat Earth at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Flat Earth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Flat Earth 2–1 San Fernando Henares

Flat Earth beat San Fernando Henares 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Castroserna in Madrid.