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San Fernando Henares vs El Álamo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

San Fernando Henares
San Fernando Henares
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
El Álamo
El Álamo
4/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Municipal Santiago del Pino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

San Fernando Henares49%
×Draw26%
El Álamo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Fernando Henares
1.51
El Álamo
1.00

San Fernando Henares creates 51% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 47 away

creates per match

San Fernando Henares
1.19
El Álamo
0.85

allows per match

San Fernando Henares
1.16
El Álamo
1.83

finishing

San Fernando Henares+0.00on par
El Álamo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando Henares ↓

El Álamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

San Fernando Henares or draw
75%
San Fernando Henares or El Álamo
74%
Draw or El Álamo
51%

Winning margin

San Fernando Henares wins by 2+
25%
El Álamo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

San Fernando Henares 1+ goals
78%
San Fernando Henares 2+ goals
44%
San Fernando Henares 3+ goals
19%
El Álamo 1+ goals
63%
El Álamo 2+ goals
26%
El Álamo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

San Fernando Henares (draw refunded)
66%
El Álamo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando Henares at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.16 · 31 matches

El Álamo away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando Henares attack 1.19 + El Álamo defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.51

El Álamo attack 0.85 + San Fernando Henares defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

San Fernando Henares scores more
49%
level
26%
El Álamo scores more
25%

San Fernando Henares at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "San Fernando Henares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: San Fernando Henares 0–1 El Álamo

El Álamo beat San Fernando Henares 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Santiago del Pino in San Fernando de Henares.