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El Álamo vs San Fernando Henares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

El Álamo
El Álamo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
San Fernando Henares
San Fernando Henares
5/16/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2nd Phase - 7Estadio Facundo Rivas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

El Álamo46%
×Draw24%
San Fernando Henares29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Álamo
1.63
San Fernando Henares
1.25

El Álamo creates 30% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 29 away

creates per match

El Álamo
1.43
San Fernando Henares
1.14

allows per match

El Álamo
1.36
San Fernando Henares
1.83

finishing

El Álamo+0.00on par
San Fernando Henares+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Álamo ↓

San Fernando Henares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

El Álamo or draw
71%
El Álamo or San Fernando Henares
76%
Draw or San Fernando Henares
54%

Winning margin

El Álamo wins by 2+
24%
San Fernando Henares wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

El Álamo 1+ goals
80%
El Álamo 2+ goals
48%
El Álamo 3+ goals
22%
San Fernando Henares 1+ goals
71%
San Fernando Henares 2+ goals
36%
San Fernando Henares 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

El Álamo (draw refunded)
61%
San Fernando Henares (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Álamo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.36 · 47 matches

San Fernando Henares away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Álamo attack 1.43 + San Fernando Henares defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.63

San Fernando Henares attack 1.14 + El Álamo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

El Álamo scores more
46%
level
24%
San Fernando Henares scores more
29%

El Álamo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "El Álamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

El Álamo 1 – 2 San Fernando Henares

San Fernando Henares beat El Álamo 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Facundo Rivas in El Álamo.