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San Fernando Henares vs Atlético Pinto — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

San Fernando Henares
San Fernando Henares
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Pinto
Atlético Pinto
4/18/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2nd Phase - 3Estadio Municipal Santiago del Pino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

San Fernando Henares44%
×Draw26%
Atlético Pinto30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Fernando Henares
1.44
Atlético Pinto
1.13

San Fernando Henares creates 27% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 29 away

creates per match

San Fernando Henares
1.19
Atlético Pinto
1.10

allows per match

San Fernando Henares
1.16
Atlético Pinto
1.69

finishing

San Fernando Henares+0.00on par
Atlético Pinto+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando Henares ↓

Atlético Pinto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

San Fernando Henares or draw
70%
San Fernando Henares or Atlético Pinto
74%
Draw or Atlético Pinto
56%

Winning margin

San Fernando Henares wins by 2+
21%
Atlético Pinto wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

San Fernando Henares 1+ goals
76%
San Fernando Henares 2+ goals
42%
San Fernando Henares 3+ goals
18%
Atlético Pinto 1+ goals
68%
Atlético Pinto 2+ goals
31%
Atlético Pinto 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

San Fernando Henares (draw refunded)
60%
Atlético Pinto (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando Henares at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.16 · 31 matches

Atlético Pinto away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando Henares attack 1.19 + Atlético Pinto defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.44

Atlético Pinto attack 1.10 + San Fernando Henares defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

San Fernando Henares scores more
44%
level
26%
Atlético Pinto scores more
30%

San Fernando Henares at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "San Fernando Henares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

San Fernando Henares 0 – 1 Atlético Pinto

Atlético Pinto beat San Fernando Henares 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Santiago del Pino in San Fernando de Henares.