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Atlético Pinto vs San Fernando Henares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Atlético Pinto
Atlético Pinto
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
San Fernando Henares
San Fernando Henares
5/29/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2nd Phase - 9Estadio Amelia del Castillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Atlético Pinto49%
×Draw25%
San Fernando Henares26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pinto
1.58
San Fernando Henares
1.07

Atlético Pinto creates 48% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 29 away

creates per match

Atlético Pinto
1.32
San Fernando Henares
1.14

allows per match

Atlético Pinto
1.00
San Fernando Henares
1.83

finishing

Atlético Pinto+0.00on par
San Fernando Henares+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pinto ↓

San Fernando Henares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atlético Pinto or draw
74%
Atlético Pinto or San Fernando Henares
75%
Draw or San Fernando Henares
51%

Winning margin

Atlético Pinto wins by 2+
25%
San Fernando Henares wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atlético Pinto 1+ goals
79%
Atlético Pinto 2+ goals
47%
Atlético Pinto 3+ goals
21%
San Fernando Henares 1+ goals
66%
San Fernando Henares 2+ goals
29%
San Fernando Henares 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pinto (draw refunded)
66%
San Fernando Henares (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pinto at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

San Fernando Henares away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pinto attack 1.32 + San Fernando Henares defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

San Fernando Henares attack 1.14 + Atlético Pinto defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atlético Pinto scores more
49%
level
25%
San Fernando Henares scores more
26%

Atlético Pinto at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atlético Pinto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Pinto 1 – 1 San Fernando Henares

Atlético Pinto and San Fernando Henares drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Amelia del Castillo in Pinto.