San Fernando Henares 1–3 Alcorcón II

San Fernando Henares

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Alcorcón II

11/10/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 12Estadio Municipal Santiago del Pino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

San Fernando Henares35%

×Draw28%

Alcorcón II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Fernando HenaresExpected goals in this matchAlcorcón II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.21

San Fernando Henares

1.15

Alcorcón II

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 97 away

1.19

creates per match

1.26

1.16

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

San Fernando Henares

1.19

Alcorcón II

1.26

allows per match

San Fernando Henares

1.16

Alcorcón II

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Fernando Henares+0.00on par

Alcorcón II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando Henares ↓

Alcorcón II →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

San Fernando Henares or draw

63%

San Fernando Henares or Alcorcón II

72%

Draw or Alcorcón II

65%

Winning margin

San Fernando Henares wins by 2+

14%

Alcorcón II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

San Fernando Henares 1+ goals

68%

San Fernando Henares 2+ goals

32%

San Fernando Henares 3+ goals

11%

Alcorcón II 1+ goals

70%

Alcorcón II 2+ goals

34%

Alcorcón II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

San Fernando Henares (draw refunded)

48%

Alcorcón II (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Fernando Henares at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.16 · 31 matches

Alcorcón II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.10 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando Henares attack 1.19 + Alcorcón II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Alcorcón II attack 1.26 + San Fernando Henares defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

San Fernando Henares scores more

35%

level

28%

Alcorcón II scores more

37%

Alcorcón II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Alcorcón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Fernando Henares vs Alcorcón II

Alcorcón II beat San Fernando Henares 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Santiago del Pino in San Fernando de Henares.

San Fernando Henares vs Alcorcón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: San Fernando Henares vs Alcorcón II