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Alcorcón II vs San Fernando Henares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Alcorcón II
Alcorcón II
CANC
00:00
San Fernando Henares
San Fernando Henares
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 31Campo 2 Alcorcón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Alcorcón II52%
×Draw24%
San Fernando Henares24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcón II
1.66
San Fernando Henares
1.04

Alcorcón II creates 60% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 29 away

creates per match

Alcorcón II
1.48
San Fernando Henares
1.14

allows per match

Alcorcón II
0.94
San Fernando Henares
1.83

finishing

Alcorcón II+0.00on par
San Fernando Henares+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcón II ↓

San Fernando Henares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Alcorcón II or draw
76%
Alcorcón II or San Fernando Henares
76%
Draw or San Fernando Henares
48%

Winning margin

Alcorcón II wins by 2+
28%
San Fernando Henares wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Alcorcón II 1+ goals
81%
Alcorcón II 2+ goals
49%
Alcorcón II 3+ goals
23%
San Fernando Henares 1+ goals
65%
San Fernando Henares 2+ goals
28%
San Fernando Henares 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alcorcón II (draw refunded)
69%
San Fernando Henares (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.94 · 99 matches

San Fernando Henares away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcón II attack 1.48 + San Fernando Henares defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.66

San Fernando Henares attack 1.14 + Alcorcón II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Alcorcón II scores more
52%
level
24%
San Fernando Henares scores more
24%

Alcorcón II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Alcorcón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alcorcón II vs San Fernando Henares — Match Preview

Alcorcón II face San Fernando Henares on March 29, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Alcorcón II host San Fernando Henares at Campo 2 Alcorcón.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.