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San Fernando CD vs Recreativo Huelva — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

San Fernando CD
San Fernando CD
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Recreativo Huelva
Recreativo Huelva
2/11/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Estadio Iberoamericano 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

San Fernando CD42%
×Draw28%
Recreativo Huelva31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Fernando CD
1.30
Recreativo Huelva
1.08

San Fernando CD creates 20% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

San Fernando CD
1.21
Recreativo Huelva
0.87

allows per match

San Fernando CD
1.29
Recreativo Huelva
1.39

finishing

San Fernando CD+0.00on par
Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando CD ↓

Recreativo Huelva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

San Fernando CD or draw
69%
San Fernando CD or Recreativo Huelva
72%
Draw or Recreativo Huelva
58%

Winning margin

San Fernando CD wins by 2+
19%
Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

San Fernando CD 1+ goals
73%
San Fernando CD 2+ goals
37%
San Fernando CD 3+ goals
14%
Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals
66%
Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals
29%
Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

San Fernando CD (draw refunded)
57%
Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando CD at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.29 · 38 matches

Recreativo Huelva away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando CD attack 1.21 + Recreativo Huelva defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.30

Recreativo Huelva attack 0.87 + San Fernando CD defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

San Fernando CD scores more
42%
level
28%
Recreativo Huelva scores more
31%

San Fernando CD at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "San Fernando CD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: San Fernando CD 1–1 Recreativo Huelva

San Fernando CD and Recreativo Huelva drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Iberoamericano 2010 in San Fernando.