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Recreativo Huelva vs San Fernando CD — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Recreativo Huelva
Recreativo Huelva
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Fernando CD
San Fernando CD
11/4/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Estadio Nuevo Colombino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Recreativo Huelva44%
×Draw28%
San Fernando CD28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Recreativo Huelva
1.31
San Fernando CD
0.99

Recreativo Huelva creates 32% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Recreativo Huelva
1.13
San Fernando CD
1.03

allows per match

Recreativo Huelva
0.95
San Fernando CD
1.50

finishing

Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par
San Fernando CD+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo Huelva ↓

San Fernando CD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Recreativo Huelva or draw
72%
Recreativo Huelva or San Fernando CD
72%
Draw or San Fernando CD
56%

Winning margin

Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+
20%
San Fernando CD wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals
73%
Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals
38%
Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals
14%
San Fernando CD 1+ goals
63%
San Fernando CD 2+ goals
26%
San Fernando CD 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)
61%
San Fernando CD (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo Huelva at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.95 · 38 matches

San Fernando CD away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo Huelva attack 1.13 + San Fernando CD defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

San Fernando CD attack 1.03 + Recreativo Huelva defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Recreativo Huelva scores more
44%
level
28%
San Fernando CD scores more
28%

Recreativo Huelva at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Recreativo Huelva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Recreativo Huelva 1 – 0 San Fernando CD

Recreativo Huelva beat San Fernando CD 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Colombino in Huelva.