Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

San Fernando CD vs Mérida AD — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

San Fernando CD
San Fernando CD
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Mérida AD
Mérida AD
10/23/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Estadio Iberoamericano 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

San Fernando CD43%
×Draw27%
Mérida AD31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Fernando CD
1.37
Mérida AD
1.12

San Fernando CD creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 37 away

creates per match

San Fernando CD
1.47
Mérida AD
0.92

allows per match

San Fernando CD
1.32
Mérida AD
1.27

finishing

San Fernando CD+0.00on par
Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando CD ↓

Mérida AD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

San Fernando CD or draw
69%
San Fernando CD or Mérida AD
73%
Draw or Mérida AD
57%

Winning margin

San Fernando CD wins by 2+
20%
Mérida AD wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

San Fernando CD 1+ goals
75%
San Fernando CD 2+ goals
40%
San Fernando CD 3+ goals
16%
Mérida AD 1+ goals
67%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
31%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

San Fernando CD (draw refunded)
58%
Mérida AD (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando CD at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando CD attack 1.47 + Mérida AD defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.37

Mérida AD attack 0.92 + San Fernando CD defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

San Fernando CD scores more
43%
level
27%
Mérida AD scores more
31%

San Fernando CD at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "San Fernando CD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Fernando CD vs Mérida AD

Mérida AD beat San Fernando CD 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Iberoamericano 2010 in San Fernando.