Mérida AD 0–2 San Fernando CD: Result & Stats

Mérida AD

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

San Fernando CD

11/18/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Estadio Romano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mérida AD47%

×Draw26%

San Fernando CD27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mérida ADExpected goals in this matchSan Fernando CD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.07

Mérida AD

1.48

San Fernando CD

1.07

Mérida AD creates 38% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.47

creates per match

1.03

1.11

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Mérida AD

1.47

San Fernando CD

1.03

allows per match

Mérida AD

1.11

San Fernando CD

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mérida AD+0.00on par

San Fernando CD+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mérida AD ↓

San Fernando CD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mérida AD or draw

73%

Mérida AD or San Fernando CD

74%

Draw or San Fernando CD

53%

Winning margin

Mérida AD wins by 2+

23%

San Fernando CD wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mérida AD 1+ goals

77%

Mérida AD 2+ goals

43%

Mérida AD 3+ goals

19%

San Fernando CD 1+ goals

66%

San Fernando CD 2+ goals

29%

San Fernando CD 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mérida AD (draw refunded)

63%

San Fernando CD (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mérida AD at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

San Fernando CD away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mérida AD attack 1.47 + San Fernando CD defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

San Fernando CD attack 1.03 + Mérida AD defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mérida AD scores more

47%

level

26%

San Fernando CD scores more

27%

Mérida AD at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mérida AD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff