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San Fernando CD vs Celta de Vigo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

San Fernando CD
San Fernando CD
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II
11/26/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Estadio Iberoamericano 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

San Fernando CD38%
×Draw26%
Celta de Vigo II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Fernando CD
1.38
Celta de Vigo II
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 120 away

creates per match

San Fernando CD
1.47
Celta de Vigo II
1.33

allows per match

San Fernando CD
1.32
Celta de Vigo II
1.29

finishing

San Fernando CD+0.00on par
Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando CD ↓

Celta de Vigo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

San Fernando CD or draw
64%
San Fernando CD or Celta de Vigo II
74%
Draw or Celta de Vigo II
62%

Winning margin

San Fernando CD wins by 2+
18%
Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

San Fernando CD 1+ goals
75%
San Fernando CD 2+ goals
40%
San Fernando CD 3+ goals
16%
Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals
74%
Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals
38%
Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

San Fernando CD (draw refunded)
52%
Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando CD at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando CD attack 1.47 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + San Fernando CD defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

San Fernando CD scores more
38%
level
26%
Celta de Vigo II scores more
36%

San Fernando CD at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "San Fernando CD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Fernando CD vs Celta de Vigo II

Celta de Vigo II beat San Fernando CD 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 26, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Iberoamericano 2010 in San Fernando.