Celta de Vigo II 2–2 San Fernando CD

Celta de Vigo II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

San Fernando CD

3/4/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Abanca-Balaídos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Celta de Vigo II48%

×Draw26%

San Fernando CD26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Celta de Vigo IIExpected goals in this matchSan Fernando CD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.04

Celta de Vigo II

1.50

San Fernando CD

1.04

Celta de Vigo II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 19 away

1.68

creates per match

0.95

1.12

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Celta de Vigo II

1.68

San Fernando CD

0.95

allows per match

Celta de Vigo II

1.12

San Fernando CD

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

San Fernando CD+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta de Vigo II ↓

San Fernando CD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Celta de Vigo II or draw

74%

Celta de Vigo II or San Fernando CD

74%

Draw or San Fernando CD

52%

Winning margin

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+

24%

San Fernando CD wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals

78%

Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals

44%

Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals

19%

San Fernando CD 1+ goals

65%

San Fernando CD 2+ goals

28%

San Fernando CD 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)

65%

San Fernando CD (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta de Vigo II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.12 · 121 matches

San Fernando CD away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.68 + San Fernando CD defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.50

San Fernando CD attack 0.95 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Celta de Vigo II scores more

48%

level

26%

San Fernando CD scores more

26%

Celta de Vigo II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Celta de Vigo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff