Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

San Fernando CD vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

San Fernando CD
San Fernando CD
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
2/24/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Estadio Iberoamericano 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

San Fernando CD36%
×Draw27%
Atlético Madrid II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Fernando CD
1.23
Atlético Madrid II
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

San Fernando CD
1.21
Atlético Madrid II
1.19

allows per match

San Fernando CD
1.29
Atlético Madrid II
1.26

finishing

San Fernando CD+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando CD ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

San Fernando CD or draw
63%
San Fernando CD or Atlético Madrid II
73%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
64%

Winning margin

San Fernando CD wins by 2+
16%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

San Fernando CD 1+ goals
71%
San Fernando CD 2+ goals
35%
San Fernando CD 3+ goals
13%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
71%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
35%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

San Fernando CD (draw refunded)
50%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando CD at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.29 · 38 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando CD attack 1.21 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.19 + San Fernando CD defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

San Fernando CD scores more
36%
level
27%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
37%

Atlético Madrid II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

San Fernando CD 0 – 0 Atlético Madrid II

San Fernando CD and Atlético Madrid II drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Iberoamericano 2010 in San Fernando.