Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atlético Madrid II vs San Fernando CD — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
San Fernando CD
San Fernando CD
10/8/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Atlético Madrid II51%
×Draw26%
San Fernando CD24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Madrid II
1.55
San Fernando CD
0.97

Atlético Madrid II creates 60% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Atlético Madrid II
1.60
San Fernando CD
1.03

allows per match

Atlético Madrid II
0.91
San Fernando CD
1.50

finishing

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par
San Fernando CD+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Madrid II ↓

San Fernando CD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Madrid II or draw
76%
Atlético Madrid II or San Fernando CD
74%
Draw or San Fernando CD
49%

Winning margin

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
26%
San Fernando CD wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
79%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
46%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
20%
San Fernando CD 1+ goals
62%
San Fernando CD 2+ goals
25%
San Fernando CD 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
68%
San Fernando CD (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Madrid II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.91 · 57 matches

San Fernando CD away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.60 + San Fernando CD defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

San Fernando CD attack 1.03 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atlético Madrid II scores more
51%
level
26%
San Fernando CD scores more
24%

Atlético Madrid II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Atlético Madrid II 4–2 San Fernando CD

Atlético Madrid II beat San Fernando CD 4-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.