San Fernando CD 0–1 AD Ceuta FC: Result & Stats

San Fernando CD

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

AD Ceuta FC

8/27/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Estadio Iberoamericano 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

San Fernando CD37%

×Draw28%

AD Ceuta FC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Fernando CDExpected goals in this matchAD Ceuta FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.15

San Fernando CD

1.21

AD Ceuta FC

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.21

creates per match

1.00

1.29

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

San Fernando CD

1.21

AD Ceuta FC

1.00

allows per match

San Fernando CD

1.29

AD Ceuta FC

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Fernando CD+0.00on par

AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando CD ↓

AD Ceuta FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

San Fernando CD or draw

65%

San Fernando CD or AD Ceuta FC

72%

Draw or AD Ceuta FC

63%

Winning margin

San Fernando CD wins by 2+

16%

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

San Fernando CD 1+ goals

70%

San Fernando CD 2+ goals

34%

San Fernando CD 3+ goals

12%

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals

68%

AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals

32%

AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

San Fernando CD (draw refunded)

52%

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando CD at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.29 · 38 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando CD attack 1.21 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.00 + San Fernando CD defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

San Fernando CD scores more

37%

level

28%

AD Ceuta FC scores more

35%

San Fernando CD at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "San Fernando CD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff