Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

San Fernando CD vs AD Ceuta FC — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

San Fernando CD
San Fernando CD
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
8/27/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Estadio Iberoamericano 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

San Fernando CD42%
×Draw26%
AD Ceuta FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Fernando CD
1.42
AD Ceuta FC
1.22

San Fernando CD creates 16% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

San Fernando CD
1.47
AD Ceuta FC
1.11

allows per match

San Fernando CD
1.32
AD Ceuta FC
1.37

finishing

San Fernando CD+0.00on par
AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Fernando CD ↓

AD Ceuta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

San Fernando CD or draw
68%
San Fernando CD or AD Ceuta FC
74%
Draw or AD Ceuta FC
58%

Winning margin

San Fernando CD wins by 2+
20%
AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

San Fernando CD 1+ goals
76%
San Fernando CD 2+ goals
41%
San Fernando CD 3+ goals
17%
AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
70%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
34%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

San Fernando CD (draw refunded)
56%
AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Fernando CD at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Fernando CD attack 1.47 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.42

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.11 + San Fernando CD defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

San Fernando CD scores more
42%
level
26%
AD Ceuta FC scores more
32%

San Fernando CD at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "San Fernando CD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Fernando CD vs AD Ceuta FC

San Fernando CD beat AD Ceuta FC 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Iberoamericano 2010 in San Fernando.