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San Diego Zest vs Orange County SC II — USL League Two 2018

San Diego Zest
San Diego Zest
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Orange County SC II
Orange County SC II
7/3/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 8Sage Creek High School Soccer Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

San Diego Zest37%
×Draw25%
Orange County SC II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Diego Zest
1.42
Orange County SC II
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

San Diego Zest
1.33
Orange County SC II
1.50

allows per match

San Diego Zest
1.33
Orange County SC II
1.50

finishing

San Diego Zest+0.00on par
Orange County SC II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Diego Zest ↓

Orange County SC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

San Diego Zest or draw
63%
San Diego Zest or Orange County SC II
75%
Draw or Orange County SC II
63%

Winning margin

San Diego Zest wins by 2+
17%
Orange County SC II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

San Diego Zest 1+ goals
76%
San Diego Zest 2+ goals
41%
San Diego Zest 3+ goals
17%
Orange County SC II 1+ goals
76%
Orange County SC II 2+ goals
41%
Orange County SC II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

San Diego Zest (draw refunded)
50%
Orange County SC II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Diego Zest at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Orange County SC II away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Diego Zest attack 1.33 + Orange County SC II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Orange County SC II attack 1.50 + San Diego Zest defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

San Diego Zest scores more
37%
level
25%
Orange County SC II scores more
37%

San Diego Zest at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "San Diego Zest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

San Diego Zest 3 – 1 Orange County SC II

San Diego Zest beat Orange County SC II 3-1 in USL League Two on July 3, 2019.

The match was played at Sage Creek High School Soccer Field.