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Orange County SC II vs San Diego Zest — USL League Two 2018

Orange County SC II
Orange County SC II
FT
3 – 3
San Diego Zest
San Diego Zest
6/20/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 1Championship Soccer Stadium at OC Great Park (Irvine, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Orange County SC II50%
×Draw20%
San Diego Zest30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orange County SC II
2.40
San Diego Zest
1.85

Orange County SC II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Orange County SC II
2.00
San Diego Zest
2.20

allows per match

Orange County SC II
1.50
San Diego Zest
2.80

finishing

Orange County SC II+0.00on par
San Diego Zest+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orange County SC II ↓

San Diego Zest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Orange County SC II or draw
70%
Orange County SC II or San Diego Zest
80%
Draw or San Diego Zest
50%

Winning margin

Orange County SC II wins by 2+
31%
San Diego Zest wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Orange County SC II 1+ goals
91%
Orange County SC II 2+ goals
69%
Orange County SC II 3+ goals
42%
San Diego Zest 1+ goals
84%
San Diego Zest 2+ goals
55%
San Diego Zest 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Orange County SC II (draw refunded)
62%
San Diego Zest (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orange County SC II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

San Diego Zest away — creates 2.20, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orange County SC II attack 2.00 + San Diego Zest defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.40

San Diego Zest attack 2.20 + Orange County SC II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Orange County SC II scores more
50%
level
20%
San Diego Zest scores more
30%

Orange County SC II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Orange County SC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orange County SC II vs San Diego Zest

Orange County SC II and San Diego Zest drew 3-3 in USL League Two on June 20, 2019.

The match was played at Championship Soccer Stadium at OC Great Park (Irvine, California).