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San Diego Wave W vs North Carolina Courage W — NWSL Women 2026

San Diego Wave W
San Diego Wave W
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
North Carolina Courage W
North Carolina Courage W
5/26/2025NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 10Snapdragon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

San Diego Wave W39%
×Draw26%
North Carolina Courage W35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Diego Wave W
1.38
North Carolina Courage W
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 82 away

creates per match

San Diego Wave W
1.39
North Carolina Courage W
1.33

allows per match

San Diego Wave W
1.25
North Carolina Courage W
1.37

finishing

San Diego Wave W+0.00on par
North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Diego Wave W ↓

North Carolina Courage W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

San Diego Wave W or draw
65%
San Diego Wave W or North Carolina Courage W
74%
Draw or North Carolina Courage W
61%

Winning margin

San Diego Wave W wins by 2+
18%
North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

San Diego Wave W 1+ goals
75%
San Diego Wave W 2+ goals
40%
San Diego Wave W 3+ goals
16%
North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals
72%
North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals
37%
North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

San Diego Wave W (draw refunded)
53%
North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Diego Wave W at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

North Carolina Courage W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.37 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Diego Wave W attack 1.39 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.38

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.33 + San Diego Wave W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

San Diego Wave W scores more
39%
level
26%
North Carolina Courage W scores more
35%

San Diego Wave W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "San Diego Wave W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Diego Wave W vs North Carolina Courage W

San Diego Wave W beat North Carolina Courage W 5-2 in NWSL Women on May 26, 2025.

The match was played at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego.