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North Carolina Courage W vs San Diego Wave W — NWSL Women 2026

North Carolina Courage W
North Carolina Courage W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
San Diego Wave W
San Diego Wave W
10/5/2024NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 17WakeMed Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

North Carolina Courage W43%
×Draw26%
San Diego Wave W31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Carolina Courage W
1.45
San Diego Wave W
1.17

North Carolina Courage W creates 24% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 57 away

creates per match

North Carolina Courage W
1.82
San Diego Wave W
1.28

allows per match

North Carolina Courage W
1.06
San Diego Wave W
1.07

finishing

North Carolina Courage W+0.00on par
San Diego Wave W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Carolina Courage W ↓

San Diego Wave W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

North Carolina Courage W or draw
69%
North Carolina Courage W or San Diego Wave W
74%
Draw or San Diego Wave W
57%

Winning margin

North Carolina Courage W wins by 2+
21%
San Diego Wave W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

North Carolina Courage W 1+ goals
77%
North Carolina Courage W 2+ goals
42%
North Carolina Courage W 3+ goals
18%
San Diego Wave W 1+ goals
69%
San Diego Wave W 2+ goals
33%
San Diego Wave W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

North Carolina Courage W (draw refunded)
59%
San Diego Wave W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Carolina Courage W at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.06 · 83 matches

San Diego Wave W away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Carolina Courage W attack 1.82 + San Diego Wave W defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.45

San Diego Wave W attack 1.28 + North Carolina Courage W defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

North Carolina Courage W scores more
43%
level
26%
San Diego Wave W scores more
31%

North Carolina Courage W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "North Carolina Courage W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: North Carolina Courage W vs San Diego Wave W

North Carolina Courage W beat San Diego Wave W 2-1 in NWSL Women on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at WakeMed Soccer Park in Cary, North Carolina.