San Diego Wave W 0–1 Bay FC W: Result & Stats

San Diego Wave W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bay FC W

R. Kundananji 5'

5/3/2026

NWSL Women · Group StageSnapdragon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

San Diego Wave W44%

×Draw26%

Bay FC W30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Diego Wave WExpected goals in this matchBay FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.19

San Diego Wave W

1.48

Bay FC W

1.19

San Diego Wave W creates 24% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 29 away

1.26

creates per match

1.17

1.22

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

San Diego Wave W

1.26

Bay FC W

1.17

allows per match

San Diego Wave W

1.22

Bay FC W

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Diego Wave W+0.00on par

Bay FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Diego Wave W ↓

Bay FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

San Diego Wave W or draw

70%

San Diego Wave W or Bay FC W

74%

Draw or Bay FC W

56%

Winning margin

San Diego Wave W wins by 2+

21%

Bay FC W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

San Diego Wave W 1+ goals

77%

San Diego Wave W 2+ goals

43%

San Diego Wave W 3+ goals

19%

Bay FC W 1+ goals

70%

Bay FC W 2+ goals

33%

Bay FC W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

San Diego Wave W (draw refunded)

59%

Bay FC W (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Diego Wave W at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

Bay FC W away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Diego Wave W attack 1.26 + Bay FC W defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bay FC W attack 1.17 + San Diego Wave W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

San Diego Wave W scores more

44%

level

26%

Bay FC W scores more

30%

San Diego Wave W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "San Diego Wave W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

J. Silkowitz

Bay FC W · G

7.9

Match Events

5'

R. Kundananji↳ T. Huff

11'

Claire Hutton

15'

Aldana Cometti

17'

Kenza DaliMissed penalty

43'

Karlie Lema

65'

G. Corley← L. E. Godfrey

65'

M. Barcenas← Gabi Portilho

65'

K. Ascanio← L. Fazer

69'

C. Conti← R. Kundananji

78'

K. Pickett← A. D. Van Zanten

80'

M. Moreau← A. Cometti

84'

T. Byars← P. Morroni

89'

K. Hubly← T. Huff

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanBay

Overview

56%Possession44%

6Total Shots4

1Corners1

4Fouls8

Shots

6Total Shots4

2On Target2

3Off Target2

1Blocked0

6Inside Box2

0Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

219Total Passes170

179Accurate Passes122

82%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

4Fouls8

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0